September has a reputation. It has seasonally earned its spot as one of the more volatile months of the year, and last week did nothing to change that.
Here's the short version of what happened, and why it matters to you.
Stocks slipped, but nothing broke.
The S&P 500 finished the week down 0.8%. The Nasdaq down 0.7%. The Dow down 1.6%. Smaller companies took the hardest hit, with the Russell 2000 falling 2.4%. Stocks did recover on Friday, with all three major indexes up close to 1%.
Ramie's read on it: this was a repricing of interest rates, not a collapse in corporate fundamentals. Companies are still doing their job. What changed is the cost of money.
Oil went back over $100.
Brent crude settled at $104.61 and WTI at $100.05. Both gained more than 8% in a single week, after attacks along Middle Eastern shipping routes renewed concerns about oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Diesel here in the U.S. climbed above $6 a gallon.
When oil moves, everything that has to be made, shipped or moved moves with it. That's why this one number carries more weight than it looks like it should.
Inflation picked back up.
Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the past year. Producer prices, which is what businesses pay before any of it ever reaches you, rose 5.4% over the year, led by energy.
People are feeling it. The University of Michigan's sentiment index fell from 51.7 to 47.8, and what consumers expect inflation to be a year from now jumped from 4.0% to 4.6%.
What About The Fed?
The Fed wraps up its two-day meeting this week, and markets are now putting better than 80% odds on a quarter point rate hike.
The real question Ramie is watching isn't whether they hike. It's whether this is a one-time response to inflation coming back, or the opening move of another tightening cycle. Those are two very different worlds for your portfolio.
So what is Fortress actually doing about all of it?
Staying focused, disciplined, and fully invested rather than reacting to every gust of wind.
The technical gauges Ramie tracks, structure, momentum and trend, are all sitting in neutral territory right now. Not broken. Not breaking out. Which means this is a week to follow the plan, not the headlines.
Ramie and the Fortress Financial team are watching a handful of very specific levels right now that will tell them whether this market holds its ground or gives way.
You can't control what the Fed does. You can't control what oil does next week either.
What you can control is whether you have the right team in your corner when it happens.
If you're not sure you do, that's exactly what a conversation with the Fortress Financial team is for. No pressure, no obligation, just clarity on where you stand and what your options are.